The 2025 State of the State Address, given by Governor Kevin Stitt, presented an optimistic outlook on Oklahoma’s economic growth, business climate, education system, and public policy. However, a closer examination of the claims made during the speech reveals discrepancies between rhetoric and reality.
This fact-checking analysis assesses key statements from the address, comparing them with verified data from government agencies, economic reports, and independent research. By clarifying these claims, we aim to provide a more accurate picture of Oklahoma’s current standing on critical issues, ensuring that public discourse is grounded in facts rather than political spin.
Economic Growth and Business Climate
Claim: “We’re number four for GDP growth.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma’s real GDP growth fluctuated in 2024. While it ranked third in Q1 with 4.2% growth, it fell to 37th in Q2 with 2.3% growth. The ranking of fourth may refer to a specific quarter not clarified in the speech. Oklahoma’s GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 ranked it third among all states and the District of Columbia. However, Oklahoma’s five-year GDP growth rate ranks it 43rd in the country.
- In the first quarter of 2024, Oklahoma’s real GDP grew at a rate of 4.2%. This was an increase from the 2.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- However, Oklahoma’s five-year GDP growth rate was 2.5% as of 2024. This ranks Oklahoma 43rd out of all 50 states.
- Oklahoma’s GDP in 2024 was $206.8 billion, which was a 0.7% increase from 2023.
Claim: “We’re number two at lowest cost of doing business.”
Fact-Check: CNBC’s 2024 America’s Top States for Business rankings indicate that Oklahoma has the lowest cost of doing business among all states, not the second lowest as previously claimed. Therefore, the claim that Oklahoma is “number two at lowest cost of doing business” is inaccurate; the state actually holds the top position in this category.
Claim: “We’re number eight in net migration to our state.”
Fact-Check: Upon reviewing the U.S. Census Bureau’s data on state population changes from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2024, Oklahoma experienced a net domestic migration gain of 46,357 individuals, ranking it 16th among U.S. states. Therefore, the claim that Oklahoma is “number eight in net migration to our state” is not supported by this data. It’s possible that different data sets or time frames might yield varying rankings, but based on the specified period, Oklahoma ranks 16th in net domestic migration.
Claim: “274 companies expanded or moved to Oklahoma.”
Fact-Check: Upon reviewing the Oklahoma Department of Commerce’s New Growth + Expansions Report, the data indicates that in 2024, there were 75 announcements for new and expanding companies statewide, with 17 of those being new to Oklahoma. This is significantly lower than the claim of 274 companies expanding or moving to Oklahoma. Therefore, the claim appears to be an overestimation based on the available data.
Fiscal Responsibility and Taxation
Claim: “We built the largest savings account in our state’s history.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma has reported record-high reserves in recent years. This claim is broadly supported but lacks specific figures.
Claim: “We passed the largest tax cut our state’s ever seen.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma has enacted significant tax cuts recently, but exact historical comparisons require detailed fiscal analysis. Even after reviewing the Oklahoma Policy Institute’s analysis, it is noted that over the past two decades, Oklahoma has reduced its personal income tax rate from 6.75% in 2003 to 4.75% in 2023 through nine separate tax cuts. While these cumulative reductions are significant, the claim of passing “the largest tax cut our state’s ever seen” may refer to a specific instance or the overall cumulative effect. However, without additional context or clarification, it’s challenging to confirm this claim definitively.
Claim: “States like Texas and Florida, spend less per person than any other state. They also have no income tax. And you don’t hear anyone complaining about their roads, their schools, or their hospitals.”
Fact-Check: Texas and Florida have no state income tax, but per capita spending comparisons fluctuate based on federal funding and state priorities. There are many articles of people complaining about roads, schools, and hospitals.
Claim: “Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, and Louisiana have lower income tax rates than Oklahoma.”
Fact-Check: As of 2024, some of these states do have lower top marginal income tax rates than Oklahoma’s 4.75%. However, rates fluctuate.
Education
Claim: “Oklahoma is ranked number four in the nation for education freedom.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma was ranked fourth for education freedom by the American Legislative Exchange Council.
Claim: “Kansas students are in their seats for 186 days a year, while Oklahoma students are only required to be in their seats for 148 days a year.”
Fact-Check: In Kansas, public school students must attend at least 186 days of school for grades kindergarten through 11, and 181 days for grade 12.
- The Kansas State Legislature requires that each school district maintain a minimum number of school days.
- School districts can choose between 186 days or 1,116 hours per year.
- Most school districts choose the 1,116-hour option because it provides more flexibility in case of bad weather.
- In 2023, a bill was introduced in the Kansas House of Representatives to increase the minimum number of school days to 195 eight-hour days or 156 ten-hour days.
Criminal Justice
Claim: “We’ve closed four prisons, saving Oklahoma taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma has undertaken some prison closures and justice reforms. Oklahoma has closed at least two state prisons: the Diamondback Correctional Facility and the Great Plains Correctional Facility.
- The Diamondback Correctional Facility and the Great Plains Correctional Facility are two state prisons that have been closed in Oklahoma.
- The Oklahoma Department of Corrections manages, maintains, and secures 23 correctional institutions in the state.
- Oklahoma’s prison population decreased by 17.35% from 2018 to 2023.
- In 2023, Oklahoma had the fourth-highest imprisonment rate in the United States.
Claim: “Nearly 40,000 Oklahomans have received a second chance because of our efforts over the last six years.”
Fact-Check: Oklahoma has made criminal justice reforms, but this number requires a specific source.
Miscellaneous
Claim: “Nationally, 71% of those who dropped out of high school grew up without a present father in the home.”
Fact-Check: This statistic aligns with data indicating that approximately 71% of high school dropouts come from fatherless homes.
Claim: “66% of juveniles in state custody experienced fatherlessness.”
Fact-Check: Research indicates that a significant proportion of juveniles in state-operated institutions come from fatherless homes. While exact percentages vary, some studies suggest figures around 70%.
Claim: “Kids with engaged fathers are 43% more likely to get A’s in school, twice as likely to go to college, and 80% less likely to spend time in jail.”
Fact-Check: Engaged fatherhood is associated with numerous positive outcomes for children. While specific percentages can vary across studies, research consistently shows that children with involved fathers are more likely to excel academically and less likely to engage in delinquent behavior.
- The figures related to fatherlessness often assume a traditional nuclear family structure, where a biological mother and father are the expected parental figures. This framework can skew the interpretation of data in several ways, particularly in relation to same-sex parent households:
- Definition of “Fatherlessness”
- Many studies that report high rates of negative outcomes (e.g., dropout rates, incarceration) for children in “fatherless homes” define fatherlessness as the absence of a biological father in a two-parent heterosexual household. However, these studies often do not account for:
- Households with two mothers (same-sex female couples) who provide stable, dual-parent environments.
- Households where another father figure, such as a stepfather, grandfather, or adoptive father, plays a significant role.
- If “fatherlessness” is narrowly defined as a home without a biological or male parental figure, it may overlook well-adjusted children raised in stable two-parent LGBTQ+ households.
- Many studies that report high rates of negative outcomes (e.g., dropout rates, incarceration) for children in “fatherless homes” define fatherlessness as the absence of a biological father in a two-parent heterosexual household. However, these studies often do not account for:
- Outcomes for Children in Same-Sex Households vs. Single-Parent Households
- Studies indicate that children raised by two parents—regardless of the parents’ gender—generally experience better academic and behavioral outcomes compared to those raised in single-parent homes.
- A meta-analysis by the American Psychological Association found that children raised in same-sex parent households do just as well, if not better, than those raised by different-sex parents.
- In contrast, many studies that highlight negative outcomes for “fatherless” children do not distinguish between single-parent households and same-sex two-parent households, potentially conflating these groups.
- Gender-Specific Parenting vs. Parental Involvement
- The idea that “fatherlessness” inherently leads to worse outcomes often assumes that only a male parent can provide specific developmental benefits. However, research suggests that what truly matters is parental involvement, stability, and emotional support—not necessarily the gender of the parent.
- Studies on same-sex parents have found that children of lesbian couples perform similarly to, if not better than, children raised in different-sex couples in terms of educational attainment, social behavior, and psychological well-being.
- Policy Implications
- Public policies or rhetoric that focus on “fatherlessness” without distinguishing between single-parent and same-sex parent households may misrepresent the real issues affecting child development.
- If policy discussions do not acknowledge the distinction between children raised by single mothers and those raised in stable same-sex two-parent homes, they risk reinforcing outdated stereotypes about family structures.
- The statistics cited in Governor Stitt’s speech likely do not differentiate between children raised by single mothers and those raised in same-sex two-parent households. This can lead to misleading conclusions that assume all “fatherless” homes are inherently unstable or detrimental to child outcomes. Research consistently suggests that the key factor in child well-being is parental stability and involvement, not the gender of the parents.
- Definition of “Fatherlessness”
If you have questions, comments, or corrections to share regarding our fact-checking, please get in touch with us via info@ok.cair.com.